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October 17, 2021

Fresno State vs. Connecticut odds, line: 2021 college football picks, predictions from model on 56-37 run

Fresno State vs. Connecticut odds, line: 2021 college football picks, predictions from model on 56-37 run

Teams looking to get back to a sense of normalcy meet in non-conference action on Saturday when the Connecticut Huskies face the Fresno State Bulldogs. UConn, which did not field a team in 2020 due to COVID-19, was 2-10 in 2019, its last season in the American Conference. Fresno State, meanwhile, placed sixth in the Mountain West Conference with a 3-3 record in last season’s shortened schedule. This will be Connecticut’s first trip to California, the farthest west the Huskies have ever played.

The game from Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, Calif., is slated to start at 2 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. UConn is looking for its first winning record since going 7-6 in 2014, while Fresno State last was above .500 in 2018 when it was 12-2. The Bulldogs are favored by 27.5 points in the latest Connecticut vs. Fresno State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 63. Before making any Fresno State vs. UConn picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. For the 2020 season, it went 56-37 on all top-rated picks and returned over $1,200 on its top-rated spread and over-under picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Connecticut vs. Fresno State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Fresno State vs. Connecticut:

Connecticut vs. Fresno State spread: Fresno State -27.5Connecticut vs. Fresno State over-under: 63 pointsConnecticut vs. Fresno State money line: UConn +2000, Fresno State -10000UC: In 2019, the Huskies averaged 18.92 points per gameFS: The Bulldogs scored 38 points off turnovers in six games in 2020

Featured Game | Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Connecticut Huskies

Why Fresno State can cover

The Bulldogs have had a lot of success against independent programs, going 8-4 against them, including winning seven of their last eight. Fresno State’s last win over an independent was a 20-13 victory over BYU in November 2017. The team’s offensive line corps is solid and could help extend the Bulldogs’ success. Fresno State is tied for second in FBS with nine returning offensive lineman who have at least one career start at the Division 1 level.

On defense, the Bulldogs’ defensive line returns a combined 89 career starts between Kevin Atkins, Kwami Jones, Arron Mosby, Isaiah Johnson, David Perales and Matt Lawson. Atkins, a senior, returns as the most experienced with 32 career starts and 46 total games played. Atkins finished last season with 22 tackles, including nine solo, with 4 ½ sacks for 27 yards. The Bulldogs excelled at pressuring the quarterback, resulting in 25 sacks in six games for an average of 4.17 per game, third-best in the nation.

Why UConn can coverDespite that, the Bulldogs are not a lock to cover the Connecticut vs. Fresno State spread. That’s because the Huskies also return a number of players from their 2019 squad, including sophomore quarterbacks Jack Zergiotis and Steven Krajewski, who are locked in a battle for the starting job. Zergiotis saw action in 10 games in 2019, completing 150 of 260 passes (57.7 percent) for 1,782 yards and nine touchdowns. He passed for 418 yards in a 31-24 loss to East Carolina on Nov. 23, 2019, which is the third-most passing yards in a game by a Connecticut player. Krajewski played in four games, completing 24 of 38 passes (63.2 percent) for three touchdowns.

Also returning is senior running back Kevin Mensah. Mensah led the Huskies in rushing with 1,013 yards on 226 carries (4.5 average) and nine touchdowns. He also caught eight passes for 91 yards (11.4 average), including a long of 26 yards. Mensah rushed for more than 100 yards in five games in 2019, including a 23-carry, 123-yard performance against 22nd-ranked Central Florida on Sept. 28.

How to make UConn vs. Fresno State picksSportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 71 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Fresno State vs. Connecticut? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.  

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