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January 30, 2023

The American Express 2023 odds, picks, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that’s nailed 8 majors

The American Express 2023 odds, picks, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that’s nailed 8 majors

After two events in Hawaii, the PGA Tour will begin its California swing with the 2023 American Express at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif., on Thursday. The tournament began back in 1960 and past champions include Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Fred Couples, Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus. Rahm won at PGA West in 2018 when it was called the CareerBuilder Challenge and the No. 4 player in the Official World Golf Rankings has been top 15 in each of his last three trips to PGA West for The American Express.

Rahm is listed as the 11-2 favorite in the latest 2023 American Express odds from Caesars Sportsbook, but No. 5 Patrick Cantlay also has a great track record (three consecutive top 10s including a runner-up finish) at PGA West and he’s listed at 19-2. Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau have both enjoyed top-five finishes here in the last three years and they’re listed at 11-1 and 14-1, respectively. Before locking in your 2023 American Express picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm (+800) to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that The American Express 2023 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 American Express predictions One major surprise the model is calling for at The American Express 2023: Cantlay, an eight-time PGA Tour champion and one of the favorites at +950, stumbles this week and fails to crack the top-five. Cantlay secured a runner-up finish at this event in 2021 after shooting a 61 in the final round at PGA West’s Stadium Course.

However, Cantlay enters this week’s event ranked 133rd in strokes gained: approach the green (-.139) and 132nd in strokes gained: around-the-green (-.099). He also ranks 100th on the PGA Tour in approaches from inside 100 yards. The inability to score from close range could be his downfall this week. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2023 American Express field.

Another surprise: Cameron Young, a 21-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Young is currently ranked 17th in the OWGR after winning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year honors in 2021-22.

Young had a pair of top-three finishes in major championships during his rookie season and managed five other top-three finishes overall in the wraparound campaign. He ranked second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee (0.914) last season and that advantage from the teeing ground should come in handy at PGA West. See who else to pick here. 

How to make 2023 American Express picksThe model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 21-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.

So who will win The American Express 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 American Express odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 American Express leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.

2023 American Express odds, fieldSee full The American Express 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Jon Rahm +550

Patrick Cantlay +950

Scottie Scheffler +1100

Tony Finau +1500

Xander Schauffele +1900

Will Zalatoris +1900

Tom Kim +2000

Sungjae Im +2100

Cameron Young +2100

Sam Burns +2900

Si Woo Kim +2900

Brian Harman +3400

Aaron Wise +4200

Tom Hoge +4200

Taylor Montgomery +4500

Cameron Davis +4800

J.T. Poston +5000

Sahith Theegala +5000

Adam Hadwin +5000

Andrew Putnam +5500

K.H. Lee +6500

Rickie Fowler +6500

Jason Day +8000

Wyndham Clark +8000

Joel Dahmen +8000

Harris English +8000

Chris Kirk +8000

Taylor Pendrith +8500

Justin Rose +8500

Patrick Rodgers +9500

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9500

Davis Riley +9500

Thomas Detry +9500

Denny McCarthy +9500

Keith Mitchell +10000

Will Gordon +10000

David Lipsky +10000

Sebastian Munoz +11000

Brendan Steele +11000

Martin Laird +12000

Brendon Todd +12000

Luke List +12000

Dean Burmester +12000

Emiliano Grillo +12000

Ben Griffin +12000

Stephan Jaeger +12000

Alex Smalley +12000

Aaron Rai +14000

Russell Knox +14000

Lee Hodges +14000

Jhonattan Vegas +16000

Nick Taylor +16000

Greyson Sigg +16000

Taylor Moore +16000

Patton Kizzire +16000

Sam Ryder +16000

Mark Hubbard +16000

Danny Willett +16000

Nate Lashley +16000

Robby Shelton +17000

S.H. Kim +17000

Justin Suh +17000

Kevin Yu +17000

Byeong Hun An +17000

Ben Taylor +17000

Troy Merritt +19000

Stewart Cink +19000

Callum Tarren +19000

Matthew NeSmith +19000

Erik Van Rooyen +21000

Satoshi Kodaira +21000

Adam Long +21000

Charley Hoffman +21000

David Lingmerth +21000

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